Single market pledge would solve EU border crisis, says Phil Hogan, European commissioner for agriculture

Ireland’s European commissioner has urged Theresa May to change her Brexit contrives dramatically to foreclose a mounting crisis over the Irish frontier from thwarting her the expectations of an EU trade deal.

The threat of a hard Irish perimeterhas emerged as the major obstacle to the prime minister’s purport of securing the green light for Brexit trade talks at a crucial meridian merely weeks away. She has effectively been handed just days to give stronger ensures over the issue.

Phil Hogan, the EU’s agriculture commissioner, told the Observer that it was a” quite simple point” that remaining inside the single market and customs union, or earmarking Northern Ireland to do so, would cease the standoff.

Hogan told there are still ” dazzle faith” from some UK executives that Britain would fasten a comprehensive Brexit free trade deal. He warned that Ireland would” continue to play tough to the end” over its threat to veto trade talks until it had guaranties over the border.

” If the UK or Northern Ireland remained in the EU customs union, or better still the single marketplace, there would be no boundary issue ,” he said.” That’s a quite simple knowledge. I continue to be amazed at blind people sect that some in London place in theoretical future free trade agreements. First, the best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in the single sell. This knowledge is simply not understood in the UK. Most real costs to cross-border business today are not tariffs- “theyre about” criteria, about customs procedures, about red tape. These are solved by the single market, but not in an FTA .”

The Irish authority craves a written guarantee that there will be no hard borderline with Northern Ireland, something Dublin feels can only be achieved, in effect, by deterring the region within the single market and customs union. However, the Democratic Unionist party, whose corroborate is propping up May’s government, counselled on Saturday it would never countenanced a post-Brexit transaction that would effectively understand a custom-mades border pushed back to the Irish Sea. May has repeatedly made clear Britain will leave the single market and customs union.

The Irish crisis came as Britain’s former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers, forewarned May’s Brexit strategy was ” an accident waiting to happen “. Speaking after a communication at Hertford College, Oxford, he said to finish the Brexit process was ” secured” to take a decade. He said that the prime minister’s unrealistic hopes of securing a bespoke sell treat signify a automobile clang in the next few months was ” quite likely “.

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EU commissioner Phil Hogan. Photo: Michael Gottschalk/ Getty Images

” The functioning of the internal market is an extraordinarily complex subjects of international law create that simply doesn’t work in a way that countenances the type of options that the current government is pushing for ,” he said.” So there is an accident waiting to happen … and it is going to happen because the other side is going to put on a table a slew which looks broadly like a Canada or a Korea deal.

” The only safe road to leave without huge unrest and tribulation over a interminable transition periods is to have a reasonable ascent … take your time and “ve been trying” go for as smooth a glide path as is practicable from here to the mid-2 020 s. I can guarantee you that this is going to take a decade to do. We will not have reached a brand-new equilibrium in British economics and politics until 2030.”

Hogan told Britain may struggle to keep the 59 craft copes it now has through the EU on the same terms.” The UK would be running to stand still ,” he said.” When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed all over the method the EU- with currently more than eight ages the UK population- will never be.

” The US have already started their attack on standards, so chlorine chicken and hormone beef for the British Sunday roast post-Brexit? India will insist on visas that the UK can never return. Australia and New Zealand are a long way away and of very limited financial interest. And any deal with China will be a one-way street in terms of costs and benefits for the UK .”

Ministers are under mount push to come clean over the extent of financial detriment that a” no treat” upshot could cause to the economy. In the budget, Philip Hammond was indicated that the Office for Budget Responsibility revised downwards outlooks for UK growth over the next few years, principally because of concerns of low productivity growth. But the OBR become clear that these downgrades were premised on a benign outcome to Brexit talks. Both the Treasury, privately, and conducting independent economists recognise that actual growing will be considerably lower than the gloomy budget projections if the UK does not achieve most of its negotiating destinations, or if there is a” no treat” result.

Government generators said diplomats would this week secrete parts of assessments into the potential financial blow of Brexit carried out across Whitehall, which until very recently they had tried to keep secret.

Many MPs imagine the published divisions will be heavily redacted and will not make clear the extent of possibilities financial detriment. Last nighttime Nicky Morgan, who chairs the Treasury select committee, said it was essential that as numerous juttings as possible were made public.

The latest labor by economists at the London School of Economics estimates that, if the UK clangs out of the EU with no bargain, the effects will be far more severe than the projections in the budget intimated. Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could shorten UK living touchstones by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.

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