Single market pledge would solve EU border crisis, alleges Phil Hogan, European commissioner for agriculture

Ireland’s European commissioner has urged Theresa May to change her Brexit plans dramatically to avoid a mount crisis over the Irish border from thwarting her the expectations of an EU trade deal.

The threat of a hard Irish metehas emerged as the major obstacle to the prime minister’s aim of securing the green light for Brexit trade talks at a crucial conference merely weeks away. She has effectively been sided just days to give stronger assures over the issue.

Phil Hogan, the EU’s agriculture commissioner, told the Observer that it was a” very simple detail” that remaining inside the single market and customs union, or allowing Northern Ireland to do so, would point the standoff.

Hogan alerted there was ” daze faith” from some UK administrators that Britain would lock a comprehensive Brexit free trade deal. He warned that Ireland would” continue to play tough to the end” over its menace to veto trade talks until it had secures over the border.

” If the UK or Northern Ireland remained in the EU customs union, or better still the single sell, there would be no boundary issue ,” he responded.” That’s a very simple fact. I continue to be amazed at the blind religion that some in London place in theoretical future free trade agreements. First, the best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in the single sell. This detail is simply not understood in the UK. Most real costs to cross-border business today are not tariffs- they are about touchstones, about customs procedures, about red tape. These are solved by the single marketplace, but not in an FTA .”

The Irish government requires a written guarantee that there will be no hard perimeter with Northern Ireland, something Dublin imagines can only be achieved, in fact, by hindering the region within the single market and customs union. Nonetheless, the Democratic Unionist party, whose subsidize is propping up May’s government, informed on Saturday it would never admitted a post-Brexit batch that would effectively verify a usages mete pushed back to the Irish Sea. May has repeatedly made clear Britain will leave the single market and customs union.

The Irish crisis came as Britain’s former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers, cautioned May’s Brexit strategy was ” an accident waiting to happen “. Speaking after a addres at Hertford College, Oxford, he remarked to finish the Brexit process was ” assured” to take a decade. He said that the prime minister’s unrealistic hopes of securing a bespoke craft cope represent a car gate-crash in the next few months was ” very likely “.

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EU commissioner Phil Hogan. Picture: Michael Gottschalk/ Getty Images

” The internal market is an extraordinarily complex subjects of international law erect that simply doesn’t work in a way that grants the type of options that the current government is pushing for ,” he remarked.” So there is an accident waiting to happen … and it is going to happen because the other side got to go put on a table a deal which gazes broadly like a Canada or a Korea deal.

” The only safe behavior to leave without gigantic agitation and hardship over a lengthy transitional period is to have a reasonable gradient … take your time and “ve been trying” go for as smooth a glide path as possible from here to the mid-2 020 s. I can guarantee you that this is going to take a decade to do. We will not have reached a brand-new equilibrium in British economy and politics until 2030.”

Hogan forewarned Britain may struggle to keep the 59 busines bargains it now has through the EU on the same terms.” The UK would be running to stand still ,” he replied.” When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed around the space the EU- with currently more than eight ages the UK population- will never be.

” The US have already started their attack on standards, so chlorine chicken and hormone beef for the British Sunday roast post-Brexit? India will insist on visas that the UK can never grant. Australia and New Zealand are a long way away and of rather limited financial pastime. And any enter into negotiations with China will be a one-way street in terms of costs and benefits for the UK .”

Ministers are under mount influence to come clean over the scope of financial mar that a” no treat” aftermath could cause to the economy. In its own budget, Philip Hammond announced that the Office for Budget Responsibility revised downwards predictions for UK growth over the next few years, principally because of fears of low-toned productivity growth. But the OBR made clear that these downgrades were premised on a benign outcome to Brexit talks. Both the Treasury, privately, and passing independent economists recognise that actual growing will be considerably lower than the gloomy fund juttings if the UK does not reach most of its negotiating destinations, or if there is a” no treat” result.

Government generators said ministers would this week secrete areas of assessments into the potential economic affect of Brexit carried out across Whitehall, which until very recently they had tried to keep secret.

Many MPs speculate the published sections will be heavily redacted and will not make clear the extent of potential financial mar. Last-place darknes Nicky Morgan, who chairs the Treasury select committee, said it was essential that as many estimates as possible were made public.

The latest occupation by economists at the London School of Economics is forecast that, if the UK crashes out of the EU with no cope, potential impacts is likely to be far more severe than the projections in the budget recommended. Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance articulated Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.

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